Fed would like persistent rise in inflation: Economist

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“Input costs in a variety of industries. Tariffs being passed along food costs rising for for for restaurants and widespread labor shortages. Which translates to me as companies gonna have pay more for workers are we looking at the beginning of a persistent rise in inflation in this country or not well. I think that s certainly.

What the fed would like i think steve was right when he said this is more transitory because it s related in part to tariffs and there s a lot of questions on whether or not those price increases will stick given the razor thin margins particularly in retail. I thought it was interesting as well the break between manufacturing. Which is still feeling the full effects of the trade war even though..


We ve ratcheted things down a bit. The tariffs are still in place and the rest of the economy. Doing much better that s good news. Because it does mean we can absorb the shock of the trade wars as long as we keep the state.

A going and you know we don t have any further escalation this year. That s good news for the overall economy. It s not good used for manufacturers and the other important point..


You said what it means that they should be paying more for workers for his tightest. Labor markets were what was the one thing. That was in the beige book that wage gains were still not that strong even though there were widespread reports of labor shortages. This has been one of the conundrums out there is how little wide was broad based wage gains have been they have been in the lowest income jobs and the lowest wage jobs which is great for those workers but we ve not seen them move upscale into middle income households or across the board and i think that s something very different from the past all right jim let s move from the the economic picture to the market matters and and to my way of thinking.

An economy that s growing at 2 or so. As steve suggests inflation growing at 2 moving. At 2 or you know..


With it within. A band of that and yields that are at 2 or below. That feels like a pretty good recipe for equities. I agree tout you know the words that kept popping out to me in the beige report over and over again was modest and moderate you know to me.

That s another way of saying. Goldilocks overall for investors. Modest and moderate and that what that means is it can syst a three and a half percent unemployed employment rate economy can handle modest to moderate growth..


Without having significant cost pressures and significant flay ssin. Nor. The need to significantly raise interest rates that s it precisely a recipe for financial assets to continue to advance overall you know we we ve been chronically disappointed in the last decade about the speed of this recovery. It s always been around that 2 stall speed of gdp growth and yet i i m starting to i m starting to like disappointment.

If you will because yeah slow growing economy means a very long recovery in a very long bull market. And there s it seems like we might get more of that to come with this report you ” ..

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